The U.S. Travel Association projects "modest" year-over-year U.S. business travel spending growth in 2026, at a level below that of leisure travel, but suggested stabilizing economic and geopolitical conditions would lead to stronger growth in subsequent years, the association said Thursday.
The U.S. Travel forecast, based on modeling from Tourism Economics, projects 2026 U.S. domestic business travel spending at $319 billion, about 0.7 percent higher in real terms from 2025 levels.
"Demand is supported by projected stabilization of corporate budgets, and continued prioritization of in-person engagement," according to the forecast.
U.S. Travel did not release precise business travel spending forecasts beyond 2026 but in the report said that it would improve "from 2027 onward as broader economic conditions stabilize and corporate travel budgets recover."
U.S. business travel spending in 2025 increased 1.1 percent year over year to $317 billion, according to U.S. Travel.
The association projects international U.S. inbound travel spending to increase 1.6 percent year over year to $178 billion, after declining 2.4 percent in 2025. Still, "the pace of international inbound travel recovery remains sensitive to policy conditions, global sentiment and geopolitical stability," it warned.
U.S. Travel projects 2026 domestic U.S. leisure spending to increase 0.9 percent year over year to $909 billion, and overall domestic travel to increase 1 percent.
"Travel continues to be one of the most resilient and essential sectors of the U.S. economy," U.S. Travel VP of research Joshua Friedlander said in a statement. "Even with inflation and broader economic pressures, Americans are continuing to invest in experiences, reunions and business connections that happen through travel."