Airlines with routes between the United States and Canada in
March have cut their capacity, while future flight bookings "have
collapsed," according to a post by OAG chief analyst John Grant.
Scheduled seats filed by airlines operating between the two
countries declined by 320,000 from the filing on March 3 to the one on March
24. Each month from April through September was down, with the largest capacity
cuts in July and August, at 3.5 percent each.
In addition, since the beginning of March, Canadian carrier
WestJet has added 114 flights to Europe "as they actively place capacity
outside of the United States," Grant wrote.
OAG also used data from a global distribution system
supplier to review forward bookings in March 2025 compared with March 2024.
"The decline is striking—bookings are down by over 70 percent in every
month through to the end of September," Grant said. "This sharp drop
suggests that travellers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to
ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute."
The trade issue began in February when U.S. President Donald
Trump signed executive orders imposing 25 percent tariffs on most goods
imported from Mexico and Canada, except for oil and energy. Canada retaliated
with 25 percent tariffs on certain goods from the U.S.
Though there have been delays in the start of some of the
tariffs, Trump also has threatened to annex Canada to the United States as a
51st state, which has led to some Canadians to call for a boycott of travel to
the U.S., according
to the Wall Street Journal.
"For all scheduled airlines operating between the
United States and Canada, any fall in consumer confidence and subsequent
changes to planned travel are a concern, especially in such a large market and
when taking place at such short notice," Grant said. "Unfortunately,
the law of unintended consequences is once again impacting the airline
industry, adding to what had already become a softening market."