American Express Global Business Travel forecasts
"stable" airfares through 2026, especially in North America, though a
few routes from region to region, especially in the Middle East, could see
significant increases.
Amex GBT's newly published Air Monitor report said that
travelers in 2026 "can expect airfares to look much like they do in
2025" amid "resilient" business travel demand. "Instead of
broad fare-based increases, airlines are adopting increasingly sophisticated
revenue management strategies, including investment in premiumization and the
application of continuous pricing," according to Amex GBT. "These
approaches are reshaping competition, keeping base fares stable while
diversifying the range of products and services available to travelers."
North America
In North America, the report forecasts fares on routes
within the region will decrease 0.3 percent in business class and decrease 0.5
percent in economy class year over year in 2026. It projects economy fares on
routes between North America and all other global regions will be down year
over year, while business class fares on routes to Asia will be flat, business
class routes to South America and Europe will be up slightly and business class
routes to the Middle East up 3.1 percent year over year.
Middle East
The report notes the Middle East will "be one of the
world's most dynamic economic regions in 2026, with growth highlights including
Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates." Besides the increase to
North America, the report projects business class fares between the Middle East
and Asia will increase 7.4 percent year over year, between the Middle East and
Europe up 3 percent year over year, between the Middle East and Australia up
6.1 percent year over year and within the Middle East up 9 percent year over
year. Economy fares, meanwhile, will be up but more moderately across those
routes, the report indicated.
Europe
Europe also will largely see airfare increase in 2026,
according to the report. Business class fares are projected to increase 4.8
percent year over year for routes within Europe as well as routes between
Europe and Asia and by 3.6 percent year over year for routes between Europe and
South America. As with the Middle East, economy fares on those routes will be
up year over year but at a more moderate growth rate than business class fares.
Asia
For routes within Asia, the report projects business class
fares will be up 3.2 percent year over year, and economy fares will decline 1.4
percent year over year.
The report, based on Prophet time series modeling using data
from Amex GBT's data lake, added the caveat that it is "based on the world
as it is today. If the tariff and trade issues we saw in the first half of 2025
reignite, the outlook could appear different."