STR and Tourism Economics further downgraded their growth projections for the U.S. hotel industry after a previous downgrade in June. The companies had projected revenue per available room to grow 2.3 percent in 2019. In June, they downgraded 2019 growth expectations to 2 percent and 2020 percent growth to 1.9 percent. Now, they've reduced 2019 to 1.6 percent and 2020 to 1.1 percent. With occupancy flat, average daily rate has been the sole driver of any RevPAR increases. The 2.9 percent RevPAR increase recorded in each 2017 and 2018 was the lowest growth for the country since the recession that began in December 2007.
"We continue to see ADR rise below the level of inflation, even as the industry operates in the highest-demand and -occupancy environment in history," said STR president and CEO Amanda Hite. "Supply growth has been manageable if you look at data from a national perspective, but there are plenty of major markets and several segments—select-service mostly—that have seen the negative effects of new inventory even with consistent demand. We're still in a RevPAR-growth cycle for now, but driving profit is a real challenge for many properties around the country."
For 2019, RevPAR in four of the 25 markets that have the most rooms is projected to grow 3 percent or more: Atlanta, Tampa/St. Petersburg, San Francisco/San Mateo and Nashville. RevPAR is expected to decline in Houston, New York, Seattle, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Miami and Washington, D.C. For 2020, just Miami and San Francisco are projected to report RevPAR growth of 3 percent or higher. New York is the only market expected to show a decline.