U.S. hotels "will not experience a year-over-year quarterly increase in revenue per available room until the second quarter of 2010

," according to PKF Hospitality Research. PKF also forecast a 2.5 percent drop in 2009 demand and a 2.9 percent increase in supply, resulting in an average occupancy of 57.6 percent, "5.1 percentage points below the long-term average occupancy level" for U.S. hotels. "The combination of above average net increases of supply occurring simultaneously with dramatic declines in demand is something we have not seen in recent industry recessions," said PKF president Mark Woodworth. "This is what makes this downturn so severe." Meanwhile, PKF projected that 2009 average daily rates would fall 2.7 percent, generating "a 14 percent decline in net operating income for the average U.S. hotel from 2008 to 2009."