Istanbul Bombing Underscores Terrorist Threat

Today's bombing of British targets in Istanbul was a reminder that the threat of terrorism is far from over. Indeed, RiskMap 2004, the annual country-by-country security forecast from the consultancy Control Risks Group, states that the "war on terror" led by the United States and its allies has served to intensify rather than diminish the danger.

RiskMap, published last week, warned presciently that "although the security situation in Turkey has improved significantly, domestic and international terrorism will continue to pose a potential risk."

"The threat has risen both quantitatively--that is, the number of countries--and qualitatively," said David Reece, EMEA corporate security director for Time Warner.

What has become especially problematic for corporate travel and security managers is that advising travelers how to avoid targeting by terrorists is next to impossible. On the one hand, security has improved at official installations, such as government and military buildings, not to mention airports (although fears persist of an attack on aircraft using surface-to-air missiles). It also is becoming harder for terrorists to mount a Sept. 11-style attack in the United States or Western Europe. On the other hand, the consequence is terrorists have shifted to a wider range of ever-softer targets outside the West.

Business and tourism now are principal targets, a threat epitomized by the bombing of the J.W. Marriott Hotel in Jakarta in August and the offices of banking company HSBC in Istanbul last week. "The risks are greatest for highly branded companies, especially those with a strong U.S. connection, but the incidental risk to non-U.S. companies is substantial and growing," the report said. "The focus on security management in high-risk areas should therefore be on lowering profiles and reducing vulnerability."

Examples of how to do this include removing any means of identifying a traveler's nationality or company from their clothing and baggage. It also could mean avoiding establishments with an obvious Western connection. Meanwhile, the bombing of the HSBC office in particular will focus travel managers' minds on the need to maintain a constantly reviewed crisis management plan. This should include a system for tracking travelers in an emergency. HSBC's U.K. travel agency, BTI UK, said it provided its client with a full list of travelers in Istanbul within 15 minutes of learning of the explosion.

According to RiskMap 2004, the threat of terrorism has escalated in particular in the Middle East and North Africa. Outside Iraq itself, the greatest risks are in Saudi Arabia, where a foreign workers' compound was bombed earlier this month, and Yemen. However, Gulf states and other countries that supported the war in Iraq also could face retaliatory attacks. The nationals of U.S. allies are at increased risk in many countries, as Spaniards, Italians and even Poles and Japanese all have been cited by al Qaeda in its broadcasts of recent months.

There are worrying trouble spots in Asia as well. CRG said another attack in Indonesia is a question of "when" rather than "if," while it said anti-Western feeling is intensifying in central Asia on account of U.S. support for its authoritarian rulers.