At first glance, Africa seems to have a solid foundation for
a flourishing aviation industry. The continental economy is among the world's
fastest growing, foreign investment is expanding and the population is vast and
rising. Yet, there are plenty of inhibitors to the continent's promising
commercial aviation future: protectionist national policies, lagging compliance
to safety standards, high costs for airlines and insufficient infrastructure,
among others.
South African Airways executive vice president of North
America and alliances Marc Cavaliere sees Africa as a continent of obstacles
and opportunities. Several organizations, including the International Air Transport
Association, are determined to remove the former to make way for the latter.
On the bright side, there is "immense and rapidly
growing demand for air travel" to, from and within Africa, said Cavaliere.
It is buoyed by continental gross domestic product growth that is far outpacing
established economies, "roughly at 5 percent to 6 percent annually,"
he said.
And while Africa's billion-plus population is 15 percent of
the world's total, it represents just 3 percent of the global air traffic, he
said last month during the Boyd Group Aviation Forecast Summit in Baltimore.
Behind only Asia, Africa is "the world's second
fastest-growing region for international travel demand," he said. "The
flights to and from the continent have grown approximately 103 percent over the
last 10 years, versus the growth rate of approximately 21 percent globally."
The ability to sustain and expand that growth hinges on
overcoming a number of challenges.
Safety Is Top Concern
Safety is considered by many to be Africa's most urgent
aviation issue. It is "the greatest challenge" for the industry,
according to prepared remarks delivered last month by African Airlines
Association secretary general Elijah Chingosho during a regulatory forum with
IATA and the African Civil Aviation Commission.
There, IATA director general and CEO Tony Tyler noted that
in 2012 roughly "half of the fatalities on Western-built jets occurred in
Africa," a staggering figure considering the continent's share of global
traffic.
"Global standards play a crucial role," said
Tyler, who called for adoption of the Abuja Declaration, backed by the United
Nations' International Civil Aviation Organization and agreed to by many
African nations.
Aiming to achieve what Tyler called "world-class safety
performance in Africa by 2015," the declaration calls for safety oversight
programs and best practices, and requires completion by all African carriers of
IATA's Operational Safety Audit. A precondition of IATA membership, Tyler
described IOSA as "the gold standard" of safety, adding that not one
of the 25 IATA members in Africa was involved in aircraft accidents on the
continent last year.
Yet, Tyler noted that at year-end 2012, only "11
African states had achieved 60 percent implementation of ICAO's safety-related
standards and recommended practices," and few are optimistic the 2015 goal
will be met. "Overall I have not yet seen sufficient urgency in dealing
with this fundamental issue," he said.
In the meantime, IATA is developing a Basic Safety Audit
Program to be rolled out by year-end 2014. "This is not an IOSA
alternative," according to Tyler. "I stress that it is only for
airlines that cannot be audited under IOSA. The goal is to give such airlines
an opportunity to also benefit from a core of global safety standards."
Missing: Pro-Aviation
Policy
Tyler said that much of what else ails African aviation
could be addressed by adherence to global standards and expanded cooperation
among governments.
A key issue is taxation, which airlines worldwide view as a
foil but is especially worrying in Africa, according to Tyler.
"Global standards and recommended practices for fees
and taxes also exist, particularly with regards to fuel for international
flights and infrastructure charges," Tyler explained. "Unfortunately,
many governments in Africa ignore them—treating aviation as a luxury rather
than as a vital enabler of development."
Tyler pointed to multiple examples: an Ethiopian fuel tax
for international flights "to support its stabilization fund," which "contravenes
the Chicago Convention and ICAO principles"; recent air traffic control
fees—implemented "without consultation"—by Mozambique and Tanzania;
and, in Kenya, a new tax "on jet fuel for international flights."
Tyler added that other nations including Senegal, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire and
Equatorial Guinea are in breach of ICAO policy by using airport security fees "to
fund national security responsibilities such as intelligence gathering and
immigration."
SAA's Cavaliere viewed such "mismanagement" as
rampant on the continent—"maybe a little bit of corruption, a little bit
of redirecting of funds. Some funding and taxes that should maybe be going to
air traffic development kind of go into other government coffers."
In many cases, those funds are not going to infrastructure,
which Cavaliere noted is "very first-world in some areas, still developing
in others."
Right To Fly
Air access and government protections also are "a
critical element to what's holding back a lot of development in aviation,"
said Cavaliere.
Adoption of the Yamoussoukro Decision of 1999, an agreement
among many African nations to liberalize air access on the continent, has been
slow. That has left many "frustrated," according to African Airlines
Association's Chingosho.
"We have to recognize that there are several states
that are making efforts to liberalize their markets and we encourage them not to
relent in this drive," said Chingosho, who called the 1999 accord "the
only viable instrument to liberalize the African sky."
While protectionist policies tend to favor home carriers,
there also are "some African countries giving more favorable treatment to
non-African carriers in terms of giving them more frequency of services to some
destinations that are denied African airlines," Chingosho added. "The
airlines being given such treatment are very strong carriers largely from the
Gulf states which also receive strong government support in their countries as
well as enjoying much lower industry costs at their hubs compared to their
African counterparts."
Up, Up And Away
Despite its challenges, Africa is poised for further growth.
Capacity levels, as measured by available seat kilometers "to, from and
within Africa are expected to triple within the next 20 years," said
Cavaliere. "Boeing and Airbus are predicting the need for approximately
1,000 new aircraft on the continent. Seventy percent of that expansion is for
growth, versus just replacement."
Cavaliere also noted that "by 2032, Africa is
forecasted to have seven mega aviation cities—defined as more than 100,000
international passengers a day." Only Johannesburg now qualifies.
Meanwhile, in addition to growth from foreign airlines,
including those from the Gulf region and Europe, Cavaliere said there is a
drive for more homegrown players. He noted that "there are presently eight
to 10 new airlines either in development or having just been launched on the
continent."
This report
originally appeared in the Dec. 16, 2013, edition of Business Travel News.