Airbnb bookings are on track to outpace the largest hotel companies within a few years, although the room-sharing platform is unlikely to become a major player in the business travel space anytime soon, according to a research note published on Friday by Barclays.
In terms of size, Airbnb already has overtaken the largest hotel companies. During the past year, the number of rooms available through Airbnb has grown from about 300,000 to about 1 million, Barclays European leisure analyst Vicki Stern wrote in the note. By comparison, as of the 2014 BTN Business Travel Survey, the largest hotel company measured by rooms, InterContinental Hotels Group, had a portfolio of about 687,000 rooms.
While there is not a direct comparison by size—not all of Airbnb's listings are available year-round, for example—its listings could double within the next year, according to Stern. She estimated that Airbnb's current bookings are about 37 million room-nights per year, about one-fifth of what IHG sold last year, but its growth could have it outpacing IHG's bookings within two or three years.
Even so, it will remain mostly a leisure player during that time, with only about 10 percent of Airbnb bookings currently used for business travel, she added.
"There is currently no regulation applied to Airbnb hosts regarding fire safety, food hygiene and insurance," Stern wrote. "This is a key difference to hotels, which are required to adopt strict health and safety regulations, and this is one key reason why we believe the majority of business[es] would be reluctant to send employees to Airbnb accommodation instead of a hotel."
As to its impact on overall hotel performance, the note concluded that it currently is negligible. Many of the bookings are for large groups or events that would not have been accommodated by hotels anyway, for example. Given Airbnb's growth trajectory, however, "we do not find the lack of an impact so far particularly reassuring," she added.