North American seat capacity this month is growing for the
first time since 2007, with August year-over-year available seat miles increasing
by 1 percent and ASMs to and from the region growing by 4 percent, OAG
reported.
"North America, the most mature aviation market and until recently the
largest, trails all other regions in seat capacity growth," said Peter von
Moltke, CEO of OAG's parent UBM Aviation. "This region is now the third
largest aviation market in the world, with combined domestic and international
capacity of 99 million seats, falling behind Asia Pacific with 109.6 million
seats, and Europe with 105.5 million."
Capacity discipline remains the rallying cry for a sustainable domestic airline
industry, airline CEOs and analysts contend, and, even in the face of a pending
economic recovery, major U.S. carriers are adding few new seats. Morgan Stanley
analyst William Greene expects the nine largest airlines to grow full-year 2010
capacity by just about 1.1 percent. All of those carriers in the back half of
this year have capacity growth plans, mostly modest, as airlines lap the supply
depths of 2009's second half.
"Current capacity guidance suggests that the airline industry will grow
capacity more modestly than normal seasonality in the coming months,"
Greene said.
There are pockets of higher domestic growth, as demonstrated by JetBlue's plan
to grow full-year 2010 capacity by 7 percent and AirTran's plan to grow
full-year capacity by nearly 4 percent. Still, their smaller footprints
compared to legacy carriers make those additions seem like a drop in the
bucket, as they are included in Morgan Stanley's 1.1 percent growth outlook.
Southwest Airlines, meanwhile, plans to keep capacity flat this year, but see
"modest" growth in 2011.